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At a thousand plus feet per second
It’s not just resources that are limited, in the WWF’s view: human potential itself is up against a hard limit beyond which the race cannot ever advance. Even progress thus far, as seen in the wealthy nations, has been achieved only by an unfair and wasteful over-use of precious resources: we rich Westerners are already beyond the practical limits that humans should ever aspire to achieve in terms of health, wealth – and even of education.
My religion offers salvation, theirs offers starvation. And they know this. And they want this. Not for themselves, mind you – they’ll be rationalizing away on how they require a better standard of living so as to ensure you do not. They would prefer (other) humans die off en masse so that… uh… metal can stay in the ground?
Pure, natural economics will provide this ‘hard limit’ they talk about. If we actually somehow managed to dig up all the metal in the Earth and jettison it toward the sun (that’s the only way we could run out, ladies and gents), then humans would find it harder and harder to survive, eventually becoming self limiting.
They want to accelerate that prematurely. My answer is to accelerate some copper and lead toward them.
Comments
Sendarius
says:
Twenty trillion dollars worth at current prices - prices which are set in part due to the rarity of the material.
As soon as somebody lands a couple of kilotons of some rare element from the asteroids, the market price will pass through the floor.
The other issue is that I don't see our industry currently being shackled by a shortage. Is there some process X that we know how to do, but can't due to a shortage of Y?
Barring that sort of industrial upheaval, suddenly having a cheap and plentiful supply of a material previously rare and expensive will be good for industry, but a real game changer? I can't see it. Heck, consumer electronics, for one, can't GET much cheaper.
Not that any of that is a reason not to do it.
As soon as somebody lands a couple of kilotons of some rare element from the asteroids, the market price will pass through the floor.
The other issue is that I don't see our industry currently being shackled by a shortage. Is there some process X that we know how to do, but can't due to a shortage of Y?
Barring that sort of industrial upheaval, suddenly having a cheap and plentiful supply of a material previously rare and expensive will be good for industry, but a real game changer? I can't see it. Heck, consumer electronics, for one, can't GET much cheaper.
Not that any of that is a reason not to do it.
Alan
says:
There is no EPA in space. That will save billions of dollars alone.
Wow. We're beyond what we should aspire to in EDUCATION.
Has knowledge suddenly become a limited resource? Has my learning something caused it to be removed from the mind of another?
And, yes, electronics can get cheaper. Reducing the amount of labor and transportation involved in their production, for example. Good enough 3D printers and other CAD/CAM systems would let an iPhone be printed in your city, without having to ship or fly it across the world from China.
Has knowledge suddenly become a limited resource? Has my learning something caused it to be removed from the mind of another?
And, yes, electronics can get cheaper. Reducing the amount of labor and transportation involved in their production, for example. Good enough 3D printers and other CAD/CAM systems would let an iPhone be printed in your city, without having to ship or fly it across the world from China.
Jack
says:
Yeah, the education thing stuck out at me too.
They're litterally saying that us Westerners are getting smarter (or at least more educated) at the cost of the rest of the planet.
Really?
Nice to see that these greens are not only open that they want us to starve in the dark, but they'd prefer we were ignornat about it.
Scratch a progressive and you'll find an aristocrat whining about how the proles don't "know their place".
They're litterally saying that us Westerners are getting smarter (or at least more educated) at the cost of the rest of the planet.
Really?
Nice to see that these greens are not only open that they want us to starve in the dark, but they'd prefer we were ignornat about it.
Scratch a progressive and you'll find an aristocrat whining about how the proles don't "know their place".
Reminds me of an interview with that Idiot from 'Whale Wars". He said that there should only be about 250,000 people on Earth, "...for the Good of the Planet".
Last time I checked, I thought Genocide was No-No for the UN. So now they are supporting it?
Last time I checked, I thought Genocide was No-No for the UN. So now they are supporting it?
"Pure, natural economics will provide this ‘hard limit’ they talk about. "
This is incorrect. This book lays out the reason way pretty well. If you don't want to buy it, the author's blog has a few posts on the same topic, but I can't find them.
We can't ever 'run out' of a resource. It is not possible. If it is valuable enough, we will find a way to make more of it that costs less than the value of it.
In addition, we will find new ways to make better use of what we have. For example, for the first quarter or half of America's history, part of economic growth was because we could keep moving west and gobbling up new land. Once we basically settled the whole thing, we couldn't get any more. Did that result in economic Armageddon? Nope, we just got better at using the land we already have. We did the same thing with our lumber stock, and will do the same thing with our gold.
This is incorrect. This book lays out the reason way pretty well. If you don't want to buy it, the author's blog has a few posts on the same topic, but I can't find them.
We can't ever 'run out' of a resource. It is not possible. If it is valuable enough, we will find a way to make more of it that costs less than the value of it.
In addition, we will find new ways to make better use of what we have. For example, for the first quarter or half of America's history, part of economic growth was because we could keep moving west and gobbling up new land. Once we basically settled the whole thing, we couldn't get any more. Did that result in economic Armageddon? Nope, we just got better at using the land we already have. We did the same thing with our lumber stock, and will do the same thing with our gold.
Jake
says:
There is no EPA in space.
Wait for it.
We can't ever 'run out' of a resource. It is not possible. If it is valuable enough, we will find a way to make more of it that costs less than the value of it.
Truth. I suspect that we are pretty close to actual elemental transmutation and that the only real holdup is that it's just not worth the research investment right now (good particle accelerators can be just a little bit expensive to operate). We could figure out how to turn lead into gold pretty quickly, but it would cost more than the gold is worth.
wizardpc
says:
Didnt some patent office dude say they should close shop because everything had already been invented? didn't that happen like 200 years ago?
SPQR
says:
wizardpc, its ascribed to Patent Commissioner Duell in 1899 but it looks to be a myth.
SiGraybeard
says:
Most of them aren't as honest as this dude, who wants to kill off about 90% of the people in the world.
He's full of such gems as Any dictatorship would be better than modern democracy. There cannot be so incompetent a dictator that he would show more stupidity than a majority of the people. The best dictatorship would be one where lots of heads would roll and where government would prevent any economical growth.
Notice how guys like this never off themselves first as an example?
He's full of such gems as Any dictatorship would be better than modern democracy. There cannot be so incompetent a dictator that he would show more stupidity than a majority of the people. The best dictatorship would be one where lots of heads would roll and where government would prevent any economical growth.
Notice how guys like this never off themselves first as an example?
SiGraybeard
says:
Ack! - that link didn't work. Let me try again...
THIS dude
THIS dude
Rob Crawford and Robb Allen:
You made my point better than I did.
I can buy a DVD burner for my PC for $30.
For that price, somebody:
1. Mined the materials
2. Refined them
3. Transported them
4. Made them into the parts of a DVD burner
5. Transported the parts to a factory
6. Assembled them
7. Packed it
8. Shipped it
9. Sold it to the retailer
10. Shipped it again
11. Sold it to me
... and everybody along the chain made a profit.
Just imagine the amount of labour and transport in that supply chain.
The game changer will come from cutting other elements of the cost equation than the few cents in raw materials. (Robb's "digging it out of the earth is practically *free*.")
Local micro-manufacturing (3D-printing, for example) is amazing, but printing an iPhone case or circuit board (or an AR-15 receiver) is a completely different animal to creating the circuitry on modern-day micro-chips.
The difference is twofold:
1. At least three orders of magnitude in resolution - hundredths of a millimetre to tens of nanometres.
2. Deposition of multiple different materials. Transistors made with only one semi-conductor don't "transist" very well.
Achieving this will be expensive, and I don't see the driver for domestic production on that scale (puns intended).
Cheaper resources from asteroid mining is not a BAD thing, and if nothing else it will save us from being held to ransom by a single supplier (rare earths from China, anybody), but it won't effect prices of manufactured goods much.
I am FULLY on board with mining and refining the stuff elsewhere, though.
You made my point better than I did.
I can buy a DVD burner for my PC for $30.
For that price, somebody:
1. Mined the materials
2. Refined them
3. Transported them
4. Made them into the parts of a DVD burner
5. Transported the parts to a factory
6. Assembled them
7. Packed it
8. Shipped it
9. Sold it to the retailer
10. Shipped it again
11. Sold it to me
... and everybody along the chain made a profit.
Just imagine the amount of labour and transport in that supply chain.
The game changer will come from cutting other elements of the cost equation than the few cents in raw materials. (Robb's "digging it out of the earth is practically *free*.")
Local micro-manufacturing (3D-printing, for example) is amazing, but printing an iPhone case or circuit board (or an AR-15 receiver) is a completely different animal to creating the circuitry on modern-day micro-chips.
The difference is twofold:
1. At least three orders of magnitude in resolution - hundredths of a millimetre to tens of nanometres.
2. Deposition of multiple different materials. Transistors made with only one semi-conductor don't "transist" very well.
Achieving this will be expensive, and I don't see the driver for domestic production on that scale (puns intended).
Cheaper resources from asteroid mining is not a BAD thing, and if nothing else it will save us from being held to ransom by a single supplier (rare earths from China, anybody), but it won't effect prices of manufactured goods much.
I am FULLY on board with mining and refining the stuff elsewhere, though.
Roberta X
says:
It is not the price of mining asteroids (and other, cheap-to-leave bodies) but the fact that if you can strip-mine Vesta for rare earths and refine them on the trip home, you don't have to do it in Wuhan, Akron or Vladivostok.
This is a win-win: you get those fancy earbuds, WWF (and you) get a cleaner planet.
Also: getting that stuff DOWN is pretty cheap, Robb. It's climbing up off this mudball that costs. Clearly, we need to send up small masses and receive large ones coming back -- preferably soft-landed, though I do have a short list of possible hard-landing sites....
This is a win-win: you get those fancy earbuds, WWF (and you) get a cleaner planet.
Also: getting that stuff DOWN is pretty cheap, Robb. It's climbing up off this mudball that costs. Clearly, we need to send up small masses and receive large ones coming back -- preferably soft-landed, though I do have a short list of possible hard-landing sites....
Firehand
says:
If it gets too expensive, we either find a better way to get it,or find a substitute; whale oil went away because kerosene and other petroleum products became a better deal in multiple ways, for instance.
So they've decided what the limits should be for everyone, everywhere; all they lack is the big stick to beat us into obedience. They won't like the result if they actually try to use it.
Les, they wouldn't consider it genocide, they'd call it 'improving the future of mankind by reducing the pressure on the planet' or something like that.
Like I said in my post on that bastard Linkola, these are the kinds of people who cause us to set more ammo aside.
we rich Westerners are already beyond the practical limits that humans should ever aspire to achieve in terms of health, wealth – and even of education.
So they've decided what the limits should be for everyone, everywhere; all they lack is the big stick to beat us into obedience. They won't like the result if they actually try to use it.
Les, they wouldn't consider it genocide, they'd call it 'improving the future of mankind by reducing the pressure on the planet' or something like that.
Like I said in my post on that bastard Linkola, these are the kinds of people who cause us to set more ammo aside.
kishnevi
says:
Roberta, you're forgetting that the WWF would simply start to object to asteroid minings as an abuse of asteroid rights, or something similar. After all, what right do we have to think of any other planet as being inferior to ours?
The real issue is that these jackasses think that everything is a zero-sum game. It's the core of their dumbass belief system.
I admit to being one of those people-hating Free Earthers.
My complaints with regards to rare Earth mining are more to due with the methods and the craptacular outcomes of those. Have you ever visited a strip mine and, I dunno, looked at the water being drained off it? It isn't exactly conducive to helping anything except acidophile bacteria live, and unfortunately we're too ignorant of what is going on, to make sure we mine these things in a somewhat safe manner. I mean that literally, even now, we have a limited understanding of hydrology and the effects of acid-mine drainage onto local water tables, aquifer recharge, etc.
And I take offense, as a willing pusher of the button that would kill all humans, it's not an unwillingness to off myself, it's laziness. If I can't take you all with me, I might as well stick around and try to enrich some lives, love some people, and enjoy life.
My complaints with regards to rare Earth mining are more to due with the methods and the craptacular outcomes of those. Have you ever visited a strip mine and, I dunno, looked at the water being drained off it? It isn't exactly conducive to helping anything except acidophile bacteria live, and unfortunately we're too ignorant of what is going on, to make sure we mine these things in a somewhat safe manner. I mean that literally, even now, we have a limited understanding of hydrology and the effects of acid-mine drainage onto local water tables, aquifer recharge, etc.
And I take offense, as a willing pusher of the button that would kill all humans, it's not an unwillingness to off myself, it's laziness. If I can't take you all with me, I might as well stick around and try to enrich some lives, love some people, and enjoy life.
Firehand
says:
Either cowardice, or not actually giving a shit: he tells people that to show how much he 'cares' about Mother Gaia. Probably gets him lots of brownie points with the other "Humans should die, but I won't off myself" clowns.
I've grown out of Tom Clancy's books, but still remember the ending of Rainbow Six. I still think it applies.
These wonderful, caring, kind souls should get a trip to the Amazon, or maybe the Congo, so they can spend time with their Earth Mother (or whatever the fuck) firsthand. Of course, this trip should be minus any and all products of our horrid civilizations of any kind. Have fun!
These wonderful, caring, kind souls should get a trip to the Amazon, or maybe the Congo, so they can spend time with their Earth Mother (or whatever the fuck) firsthand. Of course, this trip should be minus any and all products of our horrid civilizations of any kind. Have fun!
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It's raining soup out there. All we need to do to feed ourselves is a bucket and the will to go outside.