Tam explains why I'm loathe to hit the range right now

I don't want to burn up the ammo I have and not be able to replace it.

Now, I'm all about this part

The manufacturers are running full tilt. The only way they could make more ammunition is to build more plant, and they are not going to do that for several reasons. The first is that this bubble will contract sooner or later. Joe and Jane Sofaspud are going to realize that they really don't need 10,000 rounds of Winchester .45 in the basement, and that minivan payment isn't getting any smaller. They'll sell it to Annie Appleseed and Ivan Ipsc and demand will cool down.

As demand stays high and supply stays small, prices keep going up. They will go up until they become high enough to cool demand. As demand cools, supply will build back up. In order to move the new supply, prices will come back down somewhat until they reignite demand. This is Econ 101, folks, and it's as predictable as 32 ft/sec² or π*r².

Eventually, people will stop stockpiling. This pricing signal will be felt by the manufacturers, but not instantly. It will be felt when their shelves stop emptying out on an hourly basis and all of a sudden they have more than they were planning on keeping. Prices will come back down, albeit I would bet that the baseline costs of ammo have permanently gone up.

My concern, of course, isn't so much ammo but primers and powder. The next time I can find them, I'm spending the $ to buy the powder in 8 pound increments and several thousand primers rather than just one thousand. I'm going to lay off shooting the 10mm for a while simply so I can conserve the TiteGroup powder for the .45 for IPSC. One pound is generally good for about 1000 rounds and I've already cranked out a good 500 or so with the jug I've got now.

posted by by Robb Allen @
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