Sharp as a Marble - Why Bush Fans Shouldn't Get Cocky

All of this talk about huge leads for Bush I fear will only make people relax about this election. Here's a statistic from Congress.org that shows a poll that looks great for Bush, until you see what it really boils down to.

Out of everyone signed up at the site, here is the percent of votes for Bush, Kerry, and Other

Looks good, huh? 54.3% for Bush. Not really a landslide, but it'd be enough to shut up those lefties that claim it was too close and was stolen right? Except for the fact that via this poll, Bush would lose.

Here's the chart (and state view) of the only votes that count, the Electoral College's.

Not as pretty, huh? See, the popular vote isn't what counts, so even if Bush had 75% of the popular vote, 270 Electoral votes for Kerry gives Bush the boot. And it could happen.

If Kerry were to win the White House and lose the popular vote, you'll be witness to the closest thing possible to the Twilight Zone. Wingnuts will all of a sudden find religion in The Popular Vote while the Moonbats will simply say "Well, you say it didn't matter before, NOW we believe you".

I'm not trying to spread gloom (ahem, Bill ;) what I'm trying to do is bring up reality. As much as I want to believe the Kerry Kamp is as dumb as a bag of hammers, I can't lie to myself about it. Kerry and his campaign are sure to have something up their sleeves and to relax and say Bush has it in the bag is dangerous.

Comments

Bill Quick says:

on 9/18/2004 at 11:45 AM

<blockquote>I'm not trying to spread gloom (ahem, Bill ;) what I'm trying to do is bring up reality. </blockquote>Yeah, well, if you're gonna do that, you might want to check a slightly more realistic tally of electoral votes <a title="Current Electoral Vote Predictor 2004" href="http://www.electoral-vote.com/">here</a>, which has Bush winning that vote 327-211. I posted this link <a title="Daily Pundit Archives" href="http://www.dailypundit.com/archives/015262.php#015262">yesterday</a>, but don't thank me.

This tally is based on actual polling, not on website vapors, by the way.

Bill Quick says:

on 9/18/2004 at 11:46 AM

Oops. Sorry about the html. Too used to my own site, I guess.

Robb Allen says:

on 9/18/2004 at 1:03 PM

Not a problem. I've not written the add-on to allow HTML yet. Maybe next week.

I hope I'm not insulting you Bill because my main point is that we cannot rest until November 3rd and Bush is still comfortably in the Oval Office. Polls to me are so prone to error that I just can't put much faith in any of them, even the one I posted about here. Now, trends in polling might tell us something, but I'm afraid to sit back and say "Oh, Bush is going to win" and not do anything else.

I hope you're right, I hope it is a landslide because that would definitely make it harder for the Selected Not Elected crowd.

Bill Quick says:

on 9/18/2004 at 2:40 PM

"Now, trends in polling might tell us something, but I'm afraid to sit back and say "Oh, Bush is going to win" and not do anything else. "

Well, Sharp, you may have noticed that I'm not doing that, nor am I recommending that others do so. I'm working as hard as I can to destroy the Kerry candidacy and see that Bush is reelected by as wide a margin as possible.

That said, I don't want to partake of false doom and gloom. Things are looking very well right now. That tells me that my - and yours, and others' - efforts are not going for naught. Let's keep the pressure on and see if we can't widen that gap even further. And let's not pretend that all our hard work so far hasn't made a difference, and let that inspire us to make an even greater difference between now and the election.

Mark L. says:

on 9/18/2004 at 5:55 PM

Geeze.

A site that I had never heard of shows states that Bush carried by wide margins in 2000 and is carrying by wide margins today going to Kerry. In the real world that ain't happening. Kentucky and Virginia are not battleground states -- they are safe Bush. So is Alaska, and so are the Plains states.

All this proves is that when you have a little known site with few people participating you get wierd results. *Especially* since sites like these are self-selecting. Tell you what -- put a notice about this site and the vote pledges on FreeRepublic and see what happens. Within 48 hrs the electorial vote would look like the Reagan 1984 blowout.

I've always felt that this election was a lock for Bush. He lost every close state except Florida. He won Florida by 500, but lost NM by the same amount. He also lost Oregon, Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin by less than 5000 votes each. The power of incumbency should be good for that much difference. If he simply wins every state he won in 2000 except NH he has over 270 electorial votes. Yet the battleground is no longer the states Bush won that were close in 2000 -- they are the states Keery won.

Mark L says:

on 9/18/2004 at 5:56 PM

Err -- last sentence -- the battleground states are the states that Gore -- not Kerry -- won in 2000. Places like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Dummocrats.com says:

on 9/19/2004 at 1:02 AM

Why Bush Fans Shouldn\'t Get Cocky

Robb Allen says:

on 9/19/2004 at 3:23 PM

Mark, hence my post earlier about the coach screaming at his team during half time even though they were up 32 to 6.

It's not about gloom, it's (like Bill says) we have to keep going until November 3rd when Bush and Rove are clinking champagne glasses and John Kerry is on TV stating that he never ran for president.

tom furland says:

on 9/19/2004 at 8:41 PM

even in that poll, there are 4 or 5 kerry states with such a small difference they can't be given to kerry realistically. There are a total of many more than 35 votes up for grabs according to that poll. nevada, kentucky, ohio, nebraska, and virginia all have a difference of 1% or less. There are 20 electoral votes in ohio alone.

fan for kerry says:

on 10/4/2004 at 1:33 PM

OH, and your man is great huh! that beer sucking cocaine sniffing, lunatic is great. you mush enjoy the same bullshit.

Robb Allen says:

on 10/4/2004 at 1:36 PM

Oh, I mush alright!

And "Oh, your man is great huh" is a question and should have the appropriate punctuation. When insulting people, try to use good grammer and punctuation. Otherwise you end up looking like a fool.

The Proprietor says:

on 9/20/2004 at 12:37 PM

First the substantive comment: I agree that it's definitely not over til it's over. The days of candidates not being able to overcome significant polling deficits in the final weeks of a campaign are over forever. Plus, there could very likely be significant news/events on the Iraq or Terrorism front between now and election day. Having said that, minus said events, I expect Bush to win handily. Not cause he's so great, but because Kerry is just soooo bad as a candidate.

Now for the comment spam: Check out my favorite new memes that have risen out of the blogosphere in these past weeks. Nominate your favorite here: http://www.ndegrees.net/blog-archive/2004/09/blogosphere_wor.html

PS: I found your site due to your link whoring at INDCJournal. Turn about is fair play!

Robb Allen says:

on 9/20/2004 at 12:40 PM

{ed. Removed my own comment due to blatent hypocrisy. Warning to self - you're on thin ice. Don't make me ban me!}

Comments have been closed on this topic.